Emkay Global Financial Services has turned increasingly bullish on Bajaj Auto, upgrading its rating from ‘Add’ to ‘Buy’ and raising the price target to ₹11,100 from ₹9,500. At the current stock price of around ₹9,697.5 (as of January 6, 2026), this implies a potential upside of nearly 17%, making the risk-reward equation attractive for long-term investors. Emkay Upgrades Bajaj Auto on the back of improving fundamentals, electric vehicle momentum, and a strong export outlook.
Electric Vehicle Leadership Driving Growth
One of the most compelling reasons behind the upgrade is Bajaj Auto’s accelerating performance in the electric vehicle (EV) space. The company achieved the number-one position in the electric three-wheeler (E-3W) segment by December 2025, capturing a commanding 31.8% market share, ahead of key competitors. In addition, Bajaj Auto has remained the second-largest electric two-wheeler (E-2W) player for four consecutive months. Notably, the EV business has already reached EBITDA breakeven, signalling a sustainable and profitable transition toward green mobility. This EV leadership is a core reason why Emkay Upgrades Bajaj Auto with confidence.
Domestic Market Recovery and Export Strength
Emkay believes Bajaj Auto’s domestic two-wheeler market share has likely bottomed out, with early signs of recovery visible in Q3FY26. Demand has strengthened in the 125cc and premium motorcycle segments, while upcoming launches and refreshes in the Pulsar and Chetak portfolios are expected to further support volumes. On the global front, exports account for a substantial 44% of total volumes, with Latin America and Asia emerging as key growth regions. Currency depreciation tailwinds are expected to boost realisations and margins, reinforcing why Emkay Upgrades Bajaj Auto for the medium to long term.
Attractive Valuation and Earnings Outlook
From a valuation standpoint, Bajaj Auto trades at around 24x forward earnings, which appears reasonable compared to peers like TVS Motor and Eicher Motor. Emkay has also factored in EPS upgrades of 4% for FY27 and 9% for FY28, along with valuing Bajaj Auto Credit at ₹300 per share. The brokerage expects a healthy 14% EPS CAGR over FY26E–FY28E, a 2.7% dividend yield by December 2027, and a gradual recovery at KTM. With multiple growth drivers aligned, Emkay Upgrades Bajaj Auto as a compelling investment opportunity.
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