India’s transition to electric mobility is creating a resource opportunity beyond cleaner transport. A Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) working paper estimates that retired electric vehicle batteries could contain recoverable minerals worth ₹1.01 lakh crore ($11.94 billion) by FY2040-41. India’s dead EV batteries could become a source of lithium, nickel, cobalt and materials as EV adoption accelerates. The study says recycling could reduce import dependence, strengthen national supply chains and create an urban-mining ecosystem. However, it warns that recycling capacity, collection systems and mineral recovery must be built well before volumes of retired batteries reach end of life.
The CSEP study estimates 573 kt of minerals could be recovered from retired EV batteries between FY2026-27 and FY2040-41, worth ₹101,491 crore.
EV Sales Set to Drive Recycling
India added nearly 8 million EVs between FY2016-17 and FY2025-26, mainly electric two- and three-wheelers. EVs accounted for 8.25% of vehicle sales in FY2025-26. Annual EV sales are projected to reach 9.1 million by FY2030-31 and nearly 49.9 million by FY2037-38.
Mineral recovery is projected at 23 kt in FY2026-27 to FY2030-31, 118 kt in the following five years, and 432 kt through FY2040-41. Copper could dominate volume, while lithium could hold the largest value share.
Critical Minerals Create a ₹1 Lakh Crore Opportunity
India is 100% import-dependent on lithium, nickel and cobalt, classified as critical and strategic minerals by the Ministry of Mines. Recycling could meet about 10% of lithium demand for EVs initially, rising to around 12% in the following five years.
India’s dead EV batteries could become a domestic resource rather than an end-of-life liability. Electric two-wheelers are projected to provide 57% of recyclable minerals, including 53% of lithium, 60% of nickel, and 63% of cobalt. Passenger cars could contribute 24%, three-wheelers 15%, and medium- and heavy-duty EVs about 1.2%.
Investment and Capacity Challenge
Processing projected volumes would require about 3,315 kt of recycling capacity by FY2040-41 and ₹55,057 crore in investment. India’s announced battery processing capacity is about 80 kt, while the Critical Mineral Recycling Incentive Scheme targets around 270 kt by FY2030-31.
Why Early Recycling Capacity Matters
Recycling plants can take years to establish, while recovery lines need months to stabilise. It also flags black mass exports, particularly to China, because valuable materials leave India before domestic recovery.
The EU targets 90% recovery for cobalt, copper, lead and nickel by 2027 and 95% by 2031. Lithium targets are 50% and 80%. China requires at least 90% lithium recovery and 98% recovery for several other metals.
Policy Push Could Lower EV Costs
The paper recommends 10 interventions, including demand for recycled minerals, technical standards, testing, take-back systems, black-mass regulation and manufacturer-recycler partnerships. It also calls for revisiting the Battery Waste Management Rules, 2022, including collection and mineral-specific recovery requirements.
A recycling ecosystem could improve supply certainty and create opportunities for India’s dead EV batteries today in India. This could also strengthen India’s recycling industry.
If two- and three-wheelers reach 100% EV sales by FY2037-38, recoverable minerals could increase by 445 kt, adding ₹73,600 crore in value. India’s dead EV batteries could become a pillar of the country’s EV circular economy.
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