Ather Predicts 40% share for electric two-wheelers by FY31: India’s two-wheeler market, already one of the world’s largest at 20 million units in FY25, is poised for a dramatic transformation. Ather Energy, in its 2024–25 annual report, projects that electric two-wheelers (E2Ws) could account for up to 40% of the market by FY31—if an optimistic growth scenario unfolds.
Current Landscape (FY25)
- Total two-wheeler sales: ≈ 20 million units.
- E2W penetration: 5.8%, up from 5.1% in FY24.
- Scooter electrification: leading the charge—approximately 15.7% of scooters sold were electric.
Forward Trajectory: Base vs. Optimistic Scenarios
- Base case outlook:
- Total two-wheeler sales growing at 7% CAGR, reaching 29–30 million units by FY31.
- E2Ws expanding at 41% CAGR, accounting for 35% of market share by FY31.
- Optimistic scenario:
- Market growth accelerating to 8% CAGR, driving sales to 30–31 million units by FY31.
- Under these conditions, EV penetration could climb to 40%—a five-percentage-point leap from the base case.
Key growth drivers: Expanded EV model launches, strong government incentives, improving charging infrastructure, falling battery prices, and faster consumer adoption.
Scooters: The Electrification Vanguard
Scooters are expected to spearhead the EV transition:
- In FY25, electric scooters comprised roughly 16% of the scooter market—slightly above the overall two-wheeler average.
- Projections for FY31:
- 70–75% of scooters could be electric.
- E2W penetration in motorcycles is projected far lower, around 10%.
Ather’s founders, Tarun Mehta and Swapnil Jain, emphasize that scooters will drive the surge—and assert that Ather is well-positioned to capture this upside.
Scaling Production: The Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar Plant
To meet rising demand, Ather is constructing a third manufacturing facility in Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar (formerly Aurangabad), Maharashtra:
- Phase 1 is under construction, expected to yield production in phases starting FY27.
- Adds 500,000 E2Ws of annual capacity.
- Combined with the Hosur plant, Ather’s total capacity will reach 1.42 million units per year once fully operational.
This capacity expansion underscores Ather’s readiness to meet a potentially electrified future.
Why This Matters?
Ather Energy’s 40% E2W penetration forecast for FY31 signals a potential tipping point for India. Under optimistic conditions, EVs could become mainstream in just six years. Scooters—yet again—lead the charge, while production scaling ensures Ather can ride the wave.
The company’s strategy—investing in capacity, distribution, and compelling EV models—positions it to capitalize on this shift. Whether the market follows the base case (35%) or joins the optimistic surge (40%), electrification looks set to redefine the two-wheeler industry.
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